<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Commonwealth Bank has forecast the impact of potential changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing could fall flat for prospective home buyers, with only a "modest" decrease to house prices.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>In a pre-federal budget analysis, economists from the big four bank, Luke Yeaman and Harry Ottley, said reforming the property tax benefits would only have a modest impact on lowering house prices and increasing productivity.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>It estimates </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/housing" rel="" target="_blank" title="house prices"><span>house prices</span></a><span> could fall by 1.4 per cent with changes to the CGT discount and 2 per cent if coupled with an abolition of negative gearing.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/james-comey-86-47-death-threat-jack-posobiec-usa-donald-trump-news/ab77b1f6-539a-4461-9c1b-3b02ff4ccf82" rel="" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>How death threat charge could put Trump and his allies in hot water</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The largest benefit will be higher long-term government revenue and a stronger budget," the economists wrote.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Additional short-term volatility in the housing market is likely though, especially at a time when the interest rate cycle and slower population growth is also shifting prices and market sentiment."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Commonwealth Bank said changing the two policies may help affordability, as the median house price exceeds $1 million, but it will not solve the housing crisis.</span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/national/federal-budget-2026-capital-gains-tax-and-negative-gearing-commonwealth-bank-forecast/8c3c5ce4-c8be-4908-a65f-33552fbf3afe" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Boosting supply is still the key," the economists said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/prime-minister-anthony-albanese-dances-around-tax-changes-as-opposition-quashes-support/65944289-9204-4c5b-8221-79d5404f56bc" rel="" target="_blank" title="government has been dancing around what will be included in its tax reform"><span>government has been dancing around what will be included in its tax reform</span></a><span>, but has confirmed that one of the measures on the table is changes to the controversial CGT discount and negative gearing.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Critics have blamed the two </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/tax" rel="" target="_blank" title="property tax"><span>property tax</span></a><span> benefits for contributing to the housing crisis, with a Greens-led Senate inquiry finding the CGT discount is flawed and benefits investors over first-home buyers.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Two Labor senators endorsed the inquiry's report.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/antisemitism-royal-commission-interim-report-findings-bondi-beach-shooting-social-cohesion-australia/2911e464-b083-4a7a-a5a9-435f2facc0ee" rel="" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>Antisemitism report calls for gun buybacks, more counter-terrorism powers</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However, some industry experts like the Finance Brokers Association of Australia warn that changing the policies could disincentivise investment in the housing sector and </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/tax-reform-changes-impacting-investors-will-hurt-renters-finance-brokers-association-cost-of-living-news/1409cace-d64d-4782-931a-d9fa1fdc6445" rel="" target="_blank" title="place upward pressure on rent"><span>place upward pressure on rent</span></a><span>.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>If reformed, it would be the first time the CGT discount is rolled back since the Howard government raised it to 50 per cent in 1999 and the first time negative gearing is changed since it was temporarily limited by the Hawke/Keating government in 1987.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Treasurer Jim Chalmers has refused to confirm or deny whether the two policies will be changed and said the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/federal-budget" rel="" target="_blank" title="federal budget"><span>federal budget</span></a><span> has not been finalised.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Intergenerational fairness is a really important way that we address some of the substantial and understandable issues in our budget, in our tax system and in our economy more broadly," he said yesterday.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"What we are determined to see is a fairer economy that works for more people, including for younger people."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Chalmers told Nine's </span><em><span>Today</span></em><span> that there are other changes they are making to soothe housing pressures.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"If we did go down that path, I would encourage people to look right across the board at everything that we're doing in housing, not one or two policies in isolation," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></div></div><div class="block-content"><div 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