<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The groundswell of voter support for the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/pauline-hanson-policies-stance-on-immigration-housing-voting-record-explained/1a21d57d-cddd-4ba5-b1ce-0b564e205b79" rel="" target="_blank" title="insurgent One Nation"><span>insurgent One Nation</span></a><span> will soon face its first election test and polling numbers won't need to be historic to spook the heavyweights in Canberra.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/south-australia-election" rel="" target="_blank" title="South Australians are heading to the polls tomorrow"><span>South Australians are heading to the polls tomorrow</span></a><span> for what is predicted to an easy re-election for popular Premier Peter Malinauskas and his Labor government.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But an orange wave is expected to crash over rural SA, with polls tipping 21 to 22 per cent of the vote could go to Pauline Hanson's party, potentially reducing the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/liberal-party" rel="" target="_blank" title="Liberal Party"><span>Liberal Party</span></a><span> to its weakest representation in the state's history.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/petrol-prices-australia-how-fuel-costs-are-impacting-caravan-drivers/bb380c05-4c26-4895-bae2-4da8a6869682" rel="" target="_blank" title="Couple's $800 headache at the bowser as price hikes hurt caravan owners"><strong><span>Couple's $800 headache at the bowser as price hikes hurt caravan owners</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/national-cabinet-meeting-oil-supply-shock-war-iran-anthony-albanese/82395f65-e5ca-402b-a627-4e4fe8e41db1" target="_blank"><strong><span>PM's blunt message for hoarders ahead of national cabinet meeting on fuel supply</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Any tilt toward One Nation may not need to be cataclysmic to send a bipartisan chill across federal parliament, experts say.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Adelaide University's Emiratus Professor of Politics Clement Macintyre said it will be a "slap in the face" for the major parties if polling numbers are accurate, particularly if One Nation indeed leapfrogs the LNP, but any noticable jump will ring alarm bells.</span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/national/sa-election-2026-why-politicians-will-be-watching-result-closely-big-test-for-one-nation/737a6185-3b95-48b7-8e84-7c23c78253f4" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"There's reason for concern, the fact that voters appear to be turning to One Nation as an alternative voice suggests a level of dissatisfaction with the major parties and particularly with the Liberal Party in SA," Macintyre told </span><a href="https://www.nine.com.au/" rel="" target="_blank" title="Nine.com.au."><span>Nine.com.au.</span></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The Coalition in one form or another and Labor have dominated Australian politics really since around the First World War.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"And the emergence of a third party that really challenges that... it's not something we've seen before."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Macintyre said there is every chance that formerly-Liberal voters will turn to One Nation on a "significant" level tomorrow and that the party will poll reasonably well in safe Labor seats too.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>It remains to be seen if Hanson's party can turn votes into seats in the lower house.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Stripping voters away is one thing, but securing lower house seats could be tricky business in some rural seats where the independent parties also loom large.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"That requires a particular pattern of numbers and that is going to be challenging," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"But I do think One Nation will give the parties a major scare.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The level of regard and respect that voters have for the established political players is clearly at an all-time low.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"They'll have to take it seriously."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>9News Political Editor Charles Croucher said the Coalition has already eyed One Nation's surge with apphrehension, evident through the dual change in leadership.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"But the reality will really hit when MPs start losing their seats," Croucher explained.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"If it happens in SA, every marginal MP around the country will know it can happen to them too."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Croucher agreed that Malinauskas is likely to win at a canter.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Ultimately the question this weekend is less about who will be premier on Monday and more about who will be the opposition," he added.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/angus-taylor" rel="" target="_blank" title="Opposition Leader Angus Taylor"><span>Opposition Leader Angus Taylor</span></a><span> will be keeping an eagle eye on the polls in rural SA, where One Nation gained the most momentum during the 2025 Federal Election.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The downward trend for the LNP is a "warning light" for Taylor, but Macintyre predicts his response will be deflection.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"I think the first thing he'll do is distance himself from the SA result and that he barely appeared over here and this is all explained by local factors," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"You can write the script for that already."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Internally, there may be a fresh reassessment of Liberal values and how his party can seduce voters back at the Farrer byelection in May.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/pauline-hanson-policies-stance-on-immigration-housing-voting-record-explained/1a21d57d-cddd-4ba5-b1ce-0b564e205b79" target="_blank"><strong><span>One Nation's popularity is surging. But what does Pauline Hanson's party actually stand for?</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/rba-interest-rates-the-reserve-bank-has-hiked-interest-rates-how-much-will-this-cost-me/230033ae-0a25-489c-bafb-7d5d7505cade" target="_blank"><strong><span>The Reserve Bank has hiked interest rates again. How much will this cost me?</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Rural voters disaffected with the LNP after a rocky start to the year won't need to look far to find a One Nation candidate.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Macintyre said Hanson – despite her reluctance to admit it – is riding this wave of disaffection.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The opinion polls suggest that most of the people who are tempted by One Nation are saying they're fed up and frustrated with the major parties," he said, adding that Hanson is not heading up a party of "positive policy".</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"If you are a voter who is in a very safe Liberal seat and a traditional Liberal voter and you're very fed up and frustrated with the Coalition, where else do you go?</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"You're not going to go and vote for the Labor Party.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Hanson, with the profile that she's got, has benefited from that growing level of frustration that people have had with the Coalition."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><strong><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><strong><em><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Apple</span></em></strong></a><span> </span><strong><em><span>and</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Google Play</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>ticking this box here</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Sign up to</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></em></strong></a></li></ul></div></div>