<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-iran-war-update-ceasefire-agreed-though-some-attacks-continue/0ed415cd-df12-4d77-8294-29eadeee1535" rel="" target="_blank" title="US and Iran would reach a ceasefire"><span>US and Iran would reach a ceasefire</span></a><span> on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/donald-trump" rel="" target="_blank" title="Donald Trump"><span>Donald Trump</span></a><span>'s rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Early in the day, Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8pm ET deadline.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-appears-to-distance-itself-from-unpredictable-trump/c93bb15f-26a5-4c5c-a77f-45db5a91301c" rel="" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>Australia appears to distance itself from 'unpredictable' Trump</span></strong></a><strong></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets on Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>One of these wallets, created on Tuesday around 10am local time, placed roughly $US72,000 ($AUD102,264) in bets at an average price of 12.50 cents. </span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-iran-war-newly-created-polymarket-accounts-bet-big-on-ceasefire-hours-before-donald-trump-announcement/004de9d6-bd85-4f72-aa33-b6836982ffc5" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1.42 each, reflecting a 0 per cent to 100 per cent chance of what users think could happen.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $284,032.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $178,230.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $45,314 of "Yes" bets at 50 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $68,877. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat — a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-shortage-australia-when-will-petrol-prices-go-down-explained/69972b25-cf9e-4720-92f4-383bb0ad12ea" rel="" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>When Australian motorists can expect cheaper fuel prices</span></strong></a><strong></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labelled the April 7 Iran-US ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Representative Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement on Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/cardinal-christophe-pierre-pope-leo-pentagon-jd-vance-usa-politics-news/216a1531-509b-4f62-b6ae-b652c24b0784" rel="" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>Pentagon admits to summoning Pope's representative</span></strong></a><strong></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><strong><em><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Apple</span></em></strong></a><span> </span><strong><em><span>and</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Google Play</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>ticking this box here</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Sign up to</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></em></strong></a></li></ul></div></div>