<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/inflation" rel="" target="" title="Inflation"><span>Inflation</span></a><span> could be driven into the mid-sixes as early as June, economists predict, as soaring oil prices caused by the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/middle-east" rel="" target="" title="Middle East"><span>Middle East</span></a><span> conflict triggersa price hike ripple-effect across commercial enterprises.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The quasi-closure of the Strait of Hormuz- a thoroughfare for one-fifth of the world's oil - has sharply bumped fuel prices at the bowser and </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-crisis-measures-national-road-transport-association-truckies-knock-albanese/ef029c26-7bf4-4d98-b634-100d84247a49" rel="" target="" title="provoked fuel-related surcharges across industries"><span>provoked fuel-related surcharges across industries</span></a><span>.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Treasurer Jim Chalmers earlier this month warned the war in the Middle East t</span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/treasurer-jim-chalmers-delivers-grim-forecast-in-pre-budget-speech-as-he-touts-ambitious-reform/fda1a3f1-a9b1-4382-a7f1-e441a4bf0abf" rel="" target="" title="hreatened to drive inflation towards five per cent"><span>hreatened to drive inflation towards five per cent</span></a><span> and wipe billions of dollars from Australia.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/middle-east-latest-updates-iran-nuclear-facility-struck-by-israel-usa-world-news/ce5d0b47-d82e-4b33-888f-bc1aa7248061" rel="" target="" title=" Iran vows to 'exact heavy price' after Israel strikes nuclear sites"><strong><span>Iran vows to 'exact heavy price' after Israel strikes nuclear sites</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But economists now fear inflation could soar higher than that - in spite of any prospective end to the war.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Even if some resolution to the conflict is found quickly, a material cost shock has already been felt," NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent told the Australian Financial Review (AFR).</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"We expect the impact of the conflict to show up across a broad range of prices consumers face quite quickly."</span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/national/middle-east-conflict-could-push-inflation-to-midsixes-by-june/4979e2d3-003e-40e4-9216-d1003f786f53" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>If the global benchmark price for oil, Brent Crude, floats around $US120 a barrel until June before dropping to $US80 over the next few months, headline inflation would hike to 5.4 per cent in June, Commonwealth Bank of Australia head of Australian economics Belinda Allen predicts.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But if Allen's prediction proves conservative and the price of oil leaps to $150 and takes double the amount of time to fall, headline inflation could peak at 6.4 per cent in June.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/teenager-charged-with-allegedly-possessing-extremist-material/1d1dfa97-59a8-4076-9fa8-5c45fa5ea7c7" rel="" target="" title="Teenager in NSW's west charged with possessing violent extremist material"><strong><span>Teenager in NSW's west charged with possessing violent extremist material</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>NAB economists anticipate headline inflation to reach five per cent in the middle of the year.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The macro-economic outlook appears to be transitioning towards a more treacherous phase, presenting downside risks to growth," NAB Chief Economist Dr Sally Auld said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"While this primarily reflects a retail fuel price impact, we are also cognisant that other impacts will accumulate relatively quickly.</span><em><span>A More Treacherous Phase</span></em><span> read.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"For example, higher airfares will flow through into official price data from April for domestic and May for international flights. "</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But the economic outlook remains "highly uncertain", Allen said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen quickly, despite ongoing reports of US-Iran talks ... however, it is difficult to have conviction on the path of the conflict, "she told AFR.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/finance/inflation-australia-february-2026-cpi/521eeb71-3877-4cb5-80f3-0f8bf7813b6d" rel="" target="" title="The most recent ABS data"><span>The most recent ABS data</span></a><span>, in which the consumer price index eased slightly to 3.7 per cent for the 12 months to February, was down from 3.8 per cent the previous month and slightly lower than what economists were expecting.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But those figures only covered February, and therefore didn't capture any of the inflation caused by skyrocketing oil prices and other flow-on effects from the war in Iran.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>All four major banks predict the RBA to pass a third-consecutive rate hike in May, which would lift the cash rate to 4.35 per cent in response to rising inflation.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>CBA economists expect inflation to moderate in 2027 as demand slows and unemployment edges higher.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><strong><em><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Apple</span></em></strong></a><span> </span><strong><em><span>and</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Google Play</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>ticking this box here</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Sign up to</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></em></strong></a></li></ul></div></div>