<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Australians are being warned to brace for a massive surge in food prices as the escalating conflict in the Middle East chokes global oil supplies and threatens to dismantle the nation's "just-in-time" logistics networks.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The grim forecast, driven primarily by an elastic shock to the supply and cost of diesel used by food trucks, depends on how long the conflict lasts.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz enters a critical phase, leading academics say that the knock-on effect of soaring diesel costs is no longer just a headache at the petrol pump - it is becoming a threat to national food security.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/national-cabinet-meeting-oil-supply-shock-war-iran-anthony-albanese/82395f65-e5ca-402b-a627-4e4fe8e41db1" rel="" target="" title="PM's blunt message for Aussies making petrol prices worse"><strong><span>PM's blunt message for Aussies making petrol prices worse</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>While the sight of $3-a-litre petrol has rattled commuters, the real danger lies in the fuel that powers the nation's heavy machinery.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Associate Professor Devika Kannan, from the University of Adelaide, warns that surging diesel prices could soon lead to some very painful supermarket bills.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"High fuel costs may compromise both food security and the resilience of domestic logistics infrastructure," Professor Kannan told the Science Media Centre. </span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/national/experts-warn-of-50-percent-food-price-spike-as-fuel-crisis-deepens/2a78bc14-b7c8-470d-9515-751baa999b51" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Surging diesel prices threaten a 50 per cent spike in food costs and the potential collapse of just-in-time logistics networks."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Associate Professor David Ubilava of the University of Sydney echoed this concern, noting that energy costs are baked into every stage of the food chain.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Energy costs that are directly or indirectly linked to crude oil prices are a substantial component of the price we pay for a loaf of bread or a box of cereal," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h2><strong><span>Panic buying a "self-fulfilling prophecy"</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Professor Ben Fahimnia of the University of Sydney said disruptions or sudden changes in demand tended to become amplified as they move through supply chains, a phenomenon known as the "bullwhip effect"</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"A small movement at the handle can create a much larger crack at the tip," Professor Fahimnia told the Science Media Centre. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Fahimnia is among the experts who are pleading with the public to stop "panic buying," which can worsen the situation.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Economist Dr Scott French, from UNSW, described panic buying as a "self-fulfilling prophecy." </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>While it may seem prudent for an individual to fill up today, the collective action "overwhelms the system and creates the shortage that was feared."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h2><strong><span>Is Rationing Next?</span></strong></h2></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Australia's fuel resilience is under the microscope, with the country currently holding only 29 to 36 days of stock - well below the International Energy Agency's 90-day mandate.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Professor Kannan noted that if the Hormuz blockade exceeds 30 days, the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 could be triggered, ushering in formal transaction limits and fuel rationing. Already, nearly 20 percent of reserves have been released to support independent retailers in regional areas.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However, Dr Lurion De Mello of Macquarie Business School says the immediate focus should be on diesel, rather than petrol.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Our diesel supply depends heavily on refineries in South Korea, Japan, and Singapore," De Mello said. "In the short term, limiting the filling of jerry cans at petrol stations could help stabilise demand."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>If there is a silver lining, experts suggest this crisis may be the final push Australia needs to break its oil dependence.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Every major geopolitical shock in an oil-producing region quickly becomes an energy and transport crisis," Professor Hussein Dia of Swinburne University said. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Moving away from oil is as much about stability and security as it is about climate action."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><strong><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><strong><em><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Apple</span></em></strong></a><span> </span><strong><em><span>and</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Google Play</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>ticking this box here</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Sign up to</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></em></strong></a></li></ul></div></div>