<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/who-is-nicolas-maduro-from-bus-driver-to-venezuela-president-captured-by-us/5f70af86-f6ad-43f2-8254-6af8ba64fafb" rel="" target="_blank" title="The toppling of President Nicolas Maduro"><span>The toppling of President Nicolas Maduro</span></a><span> has thrust </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/venezuela" rel="" target="_blank" title="Venezuela's"><span>Venezuela's</span></a><span> debt crisis – one of the world's largest unresolved sovereign defaults – into the limelight.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Following years of economic crisis and US sanctions that severed the country from international capital markets, Venezuela defaulted in late 2017 after missing payments on international bonds issued by the government and state </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-says-united-states-will-take-control-of-venezuela-oil-reserves-what-this-means/4eb08a5f-01c8-461b-9b57-5f72945fe56f" rel="" target="_blank" title="oil company"><span>oil company</span></a><span>, Petroleos de Venezuela, known as PDVSA.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Since then, accumulated interest and legal claims tied to past expropriations have added to unpaid principal, swelling total external liabilities far beyond the face value of the original bonds.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/nicolas-maduro-capture-marco-rubio-says-us-wont-govern-venezuela/bffb111e-7cfb-4873-908e-65c4235af732" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>Rubio denies US will 'run' Venezuela despite Trump's comments</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Venezuela's distressed </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/forced-bankruptcy-rising-australia-fca-report/00a384f7-eec9-4083-b342-8a45e2fdab7c" rel="" target="_blank" title="debt"><span>debt</span></a><span> has rallied since </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/donald-trump" rel="" target="_blank" title="US President Donald Trump"><span>US President Donald Trump</span></a><span> came to power in January 2025 as speculators bet on the possibility of political change.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Below is a look at which entities owe money, what could be included in a restructuring and who might be knocking on Caracas' door to collect.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><strong><span>How much does Venezuela owe?</span></strong></h3></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/world/venezuela-is-billions-in-distressed-debt-who-will-collect-explainer/f015746c-03f6-47df-aa8c-410d99f6e35b" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Analysts estimate that Venezuela has about $60 billion (approx. $A89.7 billion) of defaulted bonds outstanding.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However, total external debt including PDVSA obligations, bilateral loans and arbitration awards stand at roughly $150-$170 billion, depending on how accrued interest and court judgments are counted, according to analysts.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The International Monetary Fund estimates Venezuela's nominal GDP at about $82.8 billion for 2025, implying a debt-to-GDP ratio of between 180-200 per cent.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A PDVSA bond originally maturing in 2020 was secured by a majority stake in US-based refiner Citgo, which is ultimately owned by Caracas-headquartered PDVSA.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Citgo is an asset now at the centre of court-supervised efforts by creditors to recover value.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-captures-maduro-ouster-of-venezuelan-president-sparks-celebrations/c35cbaf6-5d85-4cf5-aa81-c328f7d83f6b" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>Tears of joy as millions celebrate Maduro's downfall</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><strong><span>Who holds what?</span></strong></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Years of sanctions, including a prohibition on trading Venezuela's debt, have made it hard to keep tabs on ownership.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The largest share of commercial creditors likely consists of international bondholders, including specialist distressed-debt investors, sometimes called vulture funds.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Among the creditors is a group of companies awarded compensation through international arbitration after assets were expropriated by Caracas.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>US courts have upheld multi-billion-dollar awards to ConocoPhillips and Crystallex among others, turning those claims into debt obligations and allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets to make themselves whole.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A growing pool of court-recognised claimants is competing for recovery from Citgo's parent company through US legal proceedings.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A Delaware court registered about $19 billion in claims for the auction of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, which far exceeds the estimated value of Citgo's total assets.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>PDV Holding is PDVSA's wholly-owned subsidiary.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Caracas also has bilateral creditors, primarily China and Russia, which extended loans to both Maduro and his mentor, former president Hugo Chavez.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Precise numbers are hard to verify since Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics in years.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-captures-maduro-venezuelans-grapple-with-future/9a11f322-bc98-46db-a59e-0baaf9916c29" target="_blank" title=""><strong><span>'What next?': Fury, chaos as Venezuelans grapple with future after Maduro's capture</span></strong></a><span></span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><strong><span>A distant restructuring?</span></strong></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Given the plethora of claims, legal proceedings and political uncertainty, a formal restructuring is expected to be complex and lengthy.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A sovereign debt workout could be anchored by an IMF program setting fiscal targets and debt-sustainability assumptions.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However, Venezuela has not had an IMF annual consultation in nearly two decades and remains locked out of the lender's financing.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>US sanctions are another obstacle.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Since 2017, restrictions imposed under both Republican and Democratic administrations have sharply limited Venezuela's ability to issue or restructure debt without explicit licenses from the US Treasury.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>It is unclear what will happen with US sanctions. For now, President Donald Trump has said the U.S. will "run" the oil-producing nation.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/switzerland-new-years-eve-fire-victims/41c2c424-9250-4b2d-9d5c-3853605d66f7" rel="" target="_blank" title="Teenagers as young as 14 among victims of Swiss bar fire"><strong><span>Teenagers as young as 14 among victims of Swiss bar fire</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><strong><span>What are recovery values?</span></strong></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Bonds have returned some 95 per cent at the index level in 2025.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Many of them currently trade between 27-32 cents on the dollar, MarketAxess data shows.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Citigroup analysts in November estimated that a principal haircut of at least 50 per cent would be needed to restore debt sustainability and satisfy potential conditions from the IMF.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Under Citi's base case, Venezuela could offer creditors a 20-year bond with a coupon of around 4.4 per cent, alongside a 10-year zero-coupon note to compensate for past-due interest.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Using an exit yield of 11 per cent, Citi estimates the net present value of the package in the mid-40s cents on the dollar, with recoveries potentially rising into the high-40s if Venezuela were to hand out additional contingent instruments such as oil-linked warrants.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Other investors sketch a wider range. Aberdeen Investments said in September it had initially assumed recoveries of around 25 cents on the dollar for Venezuelan bonds, but that improved political and sanctions scenarios could lift recoveries into the low-to-mid-30s, depending on the structure of any deal and the use of oil-linked or GDP-style instruments.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><strong><span>What is Venezuela's economic situation?</span></strong></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Recovery assumptions sit against a grim backdrop.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Venezuela's economy shrank dramatically after 2013 when oil production fell off a cliff, inflation spiraled and poverty surged.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Although output has stabilised somewhat, lower global oil prices and discounts to Venezuela's crude prices limit revenue gains, leaving little room to service debt without deep restructuring.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The recent US blockade of sanctioned oil tankers has exacerbated the situation.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Trump said American oil companies were prepared to tackle the difficult task of entering Venezuela and investing to restore production but details and timelines remain unclear.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela's oil fields.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/how-to-follow-9news-digital/29855bb1-ad3d-4c38-bc25-3cb52af1216f"><em><strong><span>DOWNLOAD THE 9NEWS APP</span></strong></em></a><em><strong><span>: Stay across all the latest in breaking news, sport, politics and the weather via our news app and get notifications sent straight to your smartphone. Available on the</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727"><em><strong><span>Apple App Store</span></strong></em></a><span> </span><em><strong><span>and</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1"><em><strong><span>Google Play</span></strong></em></a><em><strong><span>.</span></strong></em></div></div>