<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The world is on track to add nearly two months of dangerous superhot days each year by the end of the century, with poorer small nations hit far more often than the biggest carbon-polluting countries, a study released on Thursday found.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But efforts to curb emissions of heat-trapping gases that started 10 years ago with the Paris climate agreement have had a significant effect. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Without them Earth would be heading to an additional 114 days a year of those deadly extra hot days, the same study found.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE: </span></strong><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/sydney-weather-hottest-october-on-record-could-happen/54f06329-d148-4eae-99a5-a5c30a1b1d1d"><strong><span>One capital on track to shatter heat record, temperatures soar in another</span></strong></a><strong><span></span></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The international collection of climate scientists World Weather Attribution and the US-based Climate Central teamed up to use computer simulations to calculate just how much of a difference the landmark accord has made in terms of one of the biggest climate effects on people: heat waves.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The report — which is not yet peer-reviewed but uses established techniques for climate attribution — calculated how many superhot days the world and more than 200 countries got in 2015, how many Earth gets now and what's projected in two future scenarios.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>One scenario is if countries fulfill their promises to curb emissions and by the year 2100 the world warms 2.6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times. That adds 57 superhot days to what Earth gets now, according to the study. </span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/world/weather-world-is-heading-to-add-57-superhot-days-a-year-but-study-indicates-it-could-have-been-worse/4410926b-de5e-4142-adb0-e849e8ac2ea9" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The other scenario is the 4C of warming that the world had been on track to hit before the Paris agreement. The study found that would double the number of additional hot days.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><span>Pain and suffering coming</span></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"There will be pain and suffering because of climate change," said Climate Central Vice President for Science Kristina Dahl, a report co-author. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"But if you look at this difference between 4C of warming and 2.6C of warming, that reflects the last 10 years and the ambitions that people have put forth. And to me, that's encouraging."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Nearly 200 nations gather next month in Brazil for international climate negotiations. Numerous groups of scientists, analysts and advocates are compiling reports that show the same mixed bag: The 2015 Paris agreement has made strides in the fight against climate change but it's too little and too slow.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Northern Illinois University climate scientist Victor Gensini said Thursday's hot day findings "highlight both the success and shortfall of the Paris Agreement."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The study defines superhot days for each location as days that are warmer than 90 per cent of the comparable dates between 1991 and 2020. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Since 2015, the world has already added 11 superhot days on average, the report said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"That heat sends people to the emergency room. Heat kills people," Dahl said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The report doesn't say how many people will be affected by the additional dangerously hot days, but co-author Friederike Otto of Imperial College London said that "it will definitely be tens of thousands or millions, not less." She noted that thousands die in heat waves each year already.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><span>Imagine recent heat waves but worse</span></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Thursday's study calculated that the weeklong southern Europe heat wave in 2023 is now 70 per cent more likely and 0.6C warmer than it would have been 10 years ago when the Paris agreement was signed. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>And if the world's climate-fighting efforts don't increase, a similar heat wave at the end of the century could be 3C hotter, the report estimated.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>A heat wave similar to last year's Southwestern United States and Mexico heat wave could be 1.7C hotter by the end of the century under the current carbon pollution trajectory, the report said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Other groups are also finding more than hundreds of thousands of deaths from recent heat waves in peer-reviewed research with much of it because of human-caused climate change, said University of Washington public health and climate scientist Kristie Ebi, who wasn't part of Thursday's report.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>More than anything, the data shows how unfair the effects of climate change seem, even under the less extreme of the two scenarios. The scientists broke down how many extra superhot days are expected for each country by the end of the century under that scenario.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><h3><span>Country data shows high heat inequality</span></h3></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The 10 countries that will see the biggest increases in those dangerous heat days are nearly all small and dependent on the ocean, including the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Panama and Indonesia. Panama, for example, can expect 149 extra superhot days. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Altogether the top 10 of those countries produced only 1 per cent of the heat-trapping gases now in the air but will get nearly 13 per cent of the additional superhot days.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But top carbon polluting countries, the United States, China and India are predicted to get only between 23 and 30 extra superhot days. They are responsible for 42 per cent of the carbon dioxide in the air, but are getting less than 1 per cent of the additional superhot days.</span></div></div><div class="styles__Wrapper-sc-2o34ro-0 cmwkBV"><div class="styles__Column-sc-2o34ro-3 jJDKrX"><a href="/world/2018/08/03/10/33/europe-heatwave"><img alt="" sizes="(min-width: 1024px) 636px, (min-width: 768px) 396px, 100vw" src="https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/_1umioVMGdFupyWbZv-lRHgIRww=/396x223/https%3A%2F%2Fprod.static9.net.au%2F_%2Fmedia%2F2018%2F08%2F03%2F15%2F18%2F0308_madridheat.jpg" srcset="https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/_1umioVMGdFupyWbZv-lRHgIRww=/396x223/https%3A%2F%2Fprod.static9.net.au%2F_%2Fmedia%2F2018%2F08%2F03%2F15%2F18%2F0308_madridheat.jpg 396w, https://imageresizer.static9.net.au/YPZxPrvM6WnDNbBQ8Lia0zLaRjw=/636x358/https%3A%2F%2Fprod.static9.net.au%2F_%2Fmedia%2F2018%2F08%2F03%2F15%2F18%2F0308_madridheat.jpg 636w"/></a></div><div class="styles__Column-sc-2o34ro-3 jJDKrX"><div class="styles__Headline-sc-2o34ro-4 hpbOlz">In pictures: How Europe is beating the record-breaking heat</div><div class="styles__Button-sc-2o34ro-1 eBjlmW"><a class="styles__ButtonLink-sc-2o34ro-2 hqpklJ" href="/world/2018/08/03/10/33/europe-heatwave">View Gallery</a></div></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"This report beautifully and tangibly quantifies what we've been saying for decades. The impacts of global warming are going to disproportionally affect developing nations that historically haven't emitted significant quantities of greenhouse gases," said University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver, who wasn't part of the study team. </span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Global warming is driving yet another wedge between have and have not nations; this will ultimately sow seeds of further geopolitical instability."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Hawaii and Florida are the US states that will see the biggest increase in superhot days by the end of the century under the current carbon pollution trajectory, while Idaho will see the smallest jump, the report found.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>While the report makes sense, Potsdam Climate Institute Director Johan Rockstrom, who wasn't part of the research, said people shouldn't be relieved that we are no longer on the 4C warming pre-Paris trajectory because the current track "would still imply a disastrous future for billions of humans on Earth."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/how-to-follow-9news-digital/29855bb1-ad3d-4c38-bc25-3cb52af1216f" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>DOWNLOAD THE 9NEWS APP</span></em></strong></a><strong><em><span>: Stay across all the latest in breaking news, sport, politics and the weather via our news app and get notifications sent straight to your smartphone. 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