<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Oil prices could skyrocket past $US150 a barrel due to disruption caused by the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/middle-east" rel="" target="" title="Middle East"><span>Middle East</span></a><span> conflict, Australia's largest bank has warned.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Commonwealth Bank economists said the global benchmark Brent oil could surge to between $US120 and $US150 per barrel ($168 to $210), which would discourage demand for the crucial resource in developing economies once there is a local shortage.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>However, the report said the price could rise beyond $US150 if advanced economies need to set a higher price to weaken demand.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>LIVE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-attack-iran-live-updates-march-12-donald-trump-latest-world-news-headline/79946bbf-76ad-4c59-bebb-6a2a092ad4e9"><strong><span>Wong tells Aussie expats in the Middle East to get out now</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-iran-school-missiles-tomahawk-explosion-usa-responsibility/2f613d33-f9fe-40e9-8cb8-1e9e88564e73" target="_blank" title="Trump denies knowledge of report blaming US for school bombing"><strong><span>Trump denies knowledge of report blaming US for school bombing</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>The war in Iran has all but closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy-shipping route between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, where around 19 per cent of global oil supply passes.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>This morning, Brent crude oil jumped above $US100 a barrel.</span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/finance/oil-could-surge-past-us150-dollars-a-barrel-commonwealth-bank-of-australia/443f4abe-4131-4cc9-884f-160821d44f35" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>CBA said that, while some oil can be exported from Gulf states through alternate routes, the majority of it cannot.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Oil is the only energy commodity that has potential to bypass the Strait of Hormuz," CBA commodities strategist Vivek Dhar wrote.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"We estimate that only three to five per cent of global supply can bypass the Strait of Hormuz.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/joe-rogan-donald-trump-iran-insane-betrayed-usa-news/749817fd-6b65-4363-aa45-e78fdd01762a" target="_blank" title="Joe Rogan pans Donald Trump's 'insane' actions in Iran"><strong><span>Joe Rogan pans Donald Trump's 'insane' actions in Iran</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"That means the effective disruption to global oil markets amounts to 14 to 16 per cent of global supply."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>CBA economists believe the war will last for months rather than weeks, which it said hadn't been taken into account by global energy markets.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Our view that energy markets are not fully pricing in the disruption posed by the Middle East conflict ultimately comes down to the expected length of the current disruption," Dhar said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Our expectation that this crisis could last for months instead of weeks likely means that markets are underestimating the disruption to global energy markets."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/fuel-prices-australia-stefanovic-confronts-chalmers-over-shortage-price-rise/47bc48fa-e0cd-4619-b442-bc065878ccda" target="_blank" title="Treasurer confronted over fuel shortage, price rise"><strong><span>Treasurer confronted over fuel shortage, price rise</span></strong></a></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>He added that, if the war isn't ended soon, "oil and refined product prices are at risk of rising to levels not seen in history".</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"This would seem to make it intolerable for the world to remain unmoved. This helps explain why energy markets are so reluctant to fully price an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz," he wrote in his report.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"On the other hand, the US will not want to leave without achieving its strategic goals and risk emboldening Iran and its proxies.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"This is yet another example of geopolitics clashing with economics in this new era.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"This adds a wildcard element to the outlook."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><em><strong><span>NEVER MISS A STORY: Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></strong></em></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><em><strong><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="" title=""><em><strong><span>Apple</span></strong></em></a><span> </span><em><strong><span>and</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="" title=""><em><strong><span>Google Play</span></strong></em></a></li><li><em><strong><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="" title=""><em><strong><span>ticking this box here</span></strong></em></a></li><li><em><strong><span>Sign up to</span></strong></em><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="" title=""><em><strong><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></strong></em></a></li></ul></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span></span></div></div>