<div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>In the past few weeks, just about every positive swing on the markets has stemmed from </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/donald-trump" rel="" target="" title="Donald Trump"><span>Donald Trump</span></a><span> flagging a possible end to his war with </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/iran" rel="" target="" title="Iran"><span>Iran</span></a><span>.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But every time the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-iran-war-donald-trump-conflicting-messages-sow-confusion-over-the-iran-war/6f2ee4d1-eac3-444c-9cd3-dfe0e414c09c" rel="" target="" title="US president suggested there were peace talks"><span>US president suggested there were peace talks</span></a><span> going on with Iran's leaders, Tehran has contradicted him.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>As market analysts are now beginning to note, </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/taco-donald-trump-always-chickens-out-greenland-retreat-back-down/7b017a28-6b64-4624-9ae6-c4f636559f67?utm_source=facebook&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=nine.com.au&amp;utm_content=feed&amp;utm_term=nine_digital" rel="" target="" title="it takes two to TACO"><span>it takes two to TACO</span></a><span>.</span></div></div><div><div id="adspot-mobile-medium"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-signature-us-currency-dollars-money-treasurer-usa-politics-news/1e7cf4cd-6a06-48a0-a2e1-43656f80895a"><strong><span>Donald Trump to put his name on all US paper money</span></strong></a><span></span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>On tariffs, government shutdowns and threats against </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/greenland" rel="" target="" title="Greenland"><span>Greenland</span></a><span>, </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/canada" rel="" target="" title="Canada"><span>Canada</span></a><span> or </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/panama" rel="" target="" title="Panama"><span>Panama</span></a><span>, Trump has a history of backing down in the face of strong opposition or an economic slump.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>It is why Wall Street has coined the phrase Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO).</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But it's not so simple dealing with Iran.</span></div></div><div><div class="OUTBRAIN" data-reactroot="" data-src="//www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-it-takes-two-to-taco-usa-iran-war-latest-news/420dd38d-8d0a-45bf-91df-72b06326fe23" data-widget-id="AR_5"></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Early today the president said the US had been in communications with Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baghar Ghalibaf.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our military operations in Iran," Trump wrote on Truth Social.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-florida-election-results-mar-a-lago-emily-gregory-us-politics-news/70f84489-55ba-4d49-a33f-0c8937c953b9"><strong><span>Trump on shaky ground after Democrats win Mar-a-Lago seat</span></strong></a><span></span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But Ghalibaf swiftly knocked back the claims.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"The enemy promotes its desires as news while threatening our nation at same time. Big Mistake," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"God willing, the people of Iran, under the leadership of the Supreme Leader, will make the enemy regret the aggression and reclaim their rights."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Ghalibaf suggested investors assume the opposite of what Trump has said is the truth.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Basically, it's a reverse indicator," he said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Wall Street didn't take Ghalibaf's advice overnight. After Trump's comments, the Dow Jones jumped.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-suspicious-futures-trades-treason-paul-krugman-corruption-chris-murphy/9bd90b2b-b13e-4cea-a0d3-250bc43ad3d5"><strong><span>$800m in trades before Trump announcement 'is treason'</span></strong></a><span></span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>In anticipation of a major TACO move from the president, Deutsche Bank has constructed a "stress index" to predict when investors should get in.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"If the index rises, the probability of a strategic adjustment by the government increases," Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer said.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>"If all four 'pain points' deteriorate simultaneously, the motivation for an adjustment becomes very strong."</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>But even if Trump wants out of the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-middle-east-iran-oil-sanctions-lifted-usa-news/11fa85b8-59e1-4012-a8ad-704f2408bae0" rel="" target="" title="war with Iran"><span>war with Iran</span></a><span>, it won't immediately mean peace in the region.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>This morning an </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-israel-iran-war-live-updates-march-31-donald-trump-latest-world-news-headlines/dff4c600-1131-4ea1-9c36-c24ba0df6fcb" rel="" target="" title="oil tanker was struck off the coast of the United Arab Emirates"><span>oil tanker was struck off the coast of the United Arab Emirates</span></a><span>, presumably by the Iranian military.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><span>READ MORE:</span></strong><span> </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-pearl-harbor-japanese-prime-minister-sane-takaichi-usa-politics-news/3503f82c-91b9-466e-b287-0d8f09c74842"><strong><span>Trump compares Iran attack to Pearl Harbor in front of Japan's PM</span></strong></a><span></span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>Meanwhile, an Iranian parliamentary panel has approved a move to establish an </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/iran-strait-of-hormuz-toll-tankers-charge-tax-middle-east-latest-updates/274c41fa-6a57-45f7-8663-bbbaeb2150bc" rel="" target="" title="effective toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz"><span>effective toll booth in the Strait of Hormuz</span></a><span>.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>If codified in Iranian law, all tankers passing through the strait will need to pay a substantial fee.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><span>About 20 per cent of the </span><a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/donald-trump-middle-east-iran-oil-sanctions-lifted-usa-news/11fa85b8-59e1-4012-a8ad-704f2408bae0" rel="" target="" title="world's oil passes through the narrow body of water"><span>world's oil passes through the narrow body of water</span></a><span> in the Persian Gulf.</span></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><strong><em><span>NEVER MISS A STORY:</span></em></strong><span> </span><strong><em><span>Get your breaking news and exclusive stories first by following us across all platforms.</span></em></strong></div></div><div class="block-content"><div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"><ul><li><strong><em><span>Download the 9NEWS App here via</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://apps.apple.com/au/app/9news/id1010533727" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Apple</span></em></strong></a><span> </span><strong><em><span>and</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=nineNewsAlerts.nine.com&amp;hl=en_AU&amp;pli=1" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>Google Play</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Make 9News your preferred source on Google by</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://9.nine.com.au/8x987w" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>ticking this box here</span></em></strong></a></li><li><strong><em><span>Sign up to</span></em></strong><span> </span><a href="https://login.nine.com.au/edm?client_id=nineatnine" target="_blank"><strong><em><span>our breaking newsletter here</span></em></strong></a></li></ul></div></div>