<div class="css-17ih8de interactive-body"><!-- birdkit: do not modify this file --> <!-- birdkit: html header automatically hoisted to the head --> <div class="birdkit-body g-bk-Bq7zK_bpHz0-vQ g-dark-mode-incompatible" data-birdkit-hydrate="76103fc5e282d660" data-preview-slug="bk-Bq7zK_bpHz0-vQ" id="g-bk-Bq7zK_bpHz0-vQ"> <!--[--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!-- --><figure class="g-wrapper svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block" style="--g-wrapper_margin-block:25px 15px;--g-wrapper_margin-top:25px;--g-wrapper_margin-bottom:15px;--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz"><div class="g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[0--><div aria-label="A series of bar charts showing the Cook Political Report’s race ratings for the House of Representatives at six points during the election cycle from Feb. 6, 2025 to June 3, 2026. The graphic animates between these dates and shows both Republicans and Democrats gaining advantage over the other party at certain times." class="g-svelte-graphic" role="img"><!--[--><div class="chart-wrapper svelte-1p4w0g0"><!--[-1--><div class="stepper-dots-container svelte-1p4w0g0"><!--[--><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0 active"></div><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0"></div><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0"></div><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0"></div><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0"></div><div class="dot svelte-1p4w0g0"></div><!--]--></div> <p class="date-display svelte-1p4w0g0">Feb. 6, 2025</p> <svg class="svelte-1p4w0g0" height="120" width="400"><defs><clippath id="bar-clip"><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect></clippath><lineargradient id="edge-fade-gradient-b7dn8ei444k" x1="0%" x2="100%" y1="0%" y2="0%"><stop offset="1%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop><stop offset="10%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="20%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="30%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="70%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="80%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="90%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="99%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop></lineargradient><mask id="edge-fade-mask-b7dn8ei444k"><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" fill="white" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" fill="url(#edge-fade-gradient-b7dn8ei444k)" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect></mask></defs><g transform="translate(0, 15)"><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-b7dn8ei444k)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" fill="#5295cc" height="50" width="820" x="-672" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" fill="#ebdbad" height="50" width="72.00000000000003" x="148" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-1p4w0g0" fill="#db7171" height="50" width="848" x="220.00000000000003" y="15"></rect><!--]--></g><line stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.125" x1="198.3" x2="198.3" y1="4" y2="65"></line><text class="majority-label svelte-1p4w0g0" text-anchor="middle" x="200" y="-3">218 for majority control</text><text class="party-label party-label-dem svelte-1p4w0g0" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="83">205 races</text><text class="party-label party-label-dem svelte-1p4w0g0" text-anchor="start" x="15" y="98">favor Dems.</text><text class="party-label party-label-tossups svelte-1p4w0g0" style="transform: translateX(184px); transition: transform 0.3s ease-in-out;" text-anchor="middle" x="0" y="83">18 tossups</text><text class="party-label party-label-rep svelte-1p4w0g0" text-anchor="end" x="385" y="83">212 races</text><text class="party-label party-label-rep svelte-1p4w0g0" text-anchor="end" x="385" y="98">favor Reps.</text></g></svg><!--]--></div><!--]--></div><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div><!-- --> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!-- --></figure><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><div class="g-header-wrapper g-align-center svelte-10ngljz"><div class="g-header-container g-theme-news g-align-center g-style-bolditalic svelte-l86h6b" style="--g-header-text-wrap:balance"><header class="g-header svelte-l86h6b"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-heading-wrapper svelte-l86h6b"><h1 class="g-heading svelte-1ya5ar5"><!-- -->In the Tug-of-War for Control of the House, Redistricting Provides the Muscle<!-- --></h1><!-- --></div> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><div class="g-byline-wrapper svelte-l86h6b"><p class="g-byline svelte-1lajuuz"><!--[0--><span class="g-byline-prefix">By</span><!--]--> <!--[1--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--><span class="svelte-1lajuuz g-last-byline" itemprop="name"><!--[-1--><!--[1--><a class="svelte-1gilwwa" href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/ashley-wu"><!-- -->Ashley Wu<!-- --></a><!--]--><!--]--><!--[-1--><!--]--></span><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></p><!-- --> <span class="g-timestamp-wrapper"><time class="g-interactive-timestamp svelte-cm3h0f" datetime="2026-06-11T20:14:15-04:00"><!--[2-->June 11, 2026<!--]--></time><!-- --></span></div><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><div class="g-sharetools svelte-l86h6b"><div class="g-sharetools-wrapper svelte-1llcq6u g-align-center"><span class="svelte-1llcq6u" data-disable="" data-place-component="sharetools" data-render-hash="h--b031da0" data-theme="light-filled"><div class="css-1sm67ns"><div aria-label="Social Media Share buttons, Save button, and Comments Panel with current comment count" class="css-12sfz4w" data-testid="share-tools" role="toolbar"><div></div><div class="interactive-sharetools css-n7z2yi" data-testid="share-tools-menu"><ul class="css-16g9egj" data-testid="share-tools-list"><li class="css-1obgmli"><div class="css-vxcmzt"><div class="css-79elbk"><button aria-expanded="false" aria-label="" class="css-1eeh360 actionbar-button" 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g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Because the party out of power almost always does well in midterm elections, Democrats should be cruising toward a comfortable performance in the fall. And public sentiment has steadily drifted away from President Trump — and, by proxy, Republicans — amid an unpopular war with Iran, high gas prices and discontent with the president’s handling of the economy.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->But public sentiment matters only so much in elections. The way congressional maps are drawn can have an enormous impact on which party is favored to win. Over the last year, Republicans have created a structural advantage by redrawing maps to carve out more safe red territory.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->The <a href="https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/573956">data from the Cook Political Report</a>, a nonpartisan group that analyzes elections, lays bare this tug-of-war for House control.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!-- --><figure class="g-wrapper g-stacked-bars svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block" style="--g-wrapper_margin-block:30px;--g-wrapper_margin-top:30px;--g-wrapper_margin-bottom:30px;--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance"><!--[0--><div class="g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline"><div class="g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz"><!--[--><!--[--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[0--><div class="g-wrapper_hed g-text-align-left svelte-ork8ht" style="--g-text-wrap:balance;"><!--[0--><h3 class="g-heading svelte-ork8ht"><!-- -->House race ratings from the Cook Political Report<!-- --></h3><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline" style="--g-block_margin-inline:8px;--g-block_margin-left:8px;--g-block_margin-right:8px"><div class="g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[0--><div aria-label="A series of bar charts showing the Cook Political Report’s race ratings for the House of Representatives at six points during the election cycle, from Feb. 6, 2025 to June 3, 2026. The graphic shows both Republicans and Democrats gaining advantage over the other at certain times." class="g-svelte-graphic" role="img"><!--[--><div class="chart-wrapper svelte-1hjqvm9"><!--[-1--><svg class="svelte-1hjqvm9" height="262" width="400"><defs><clippath id="bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9"><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" height="262" width="310" x="0" y="0"></rect></clippath><lineargradient id="edge-fade-gradient-ag44jnir2w9" x1="0%" x2="100%" y1="0%" y2="0%"><stop offset="1%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop><stop offset="10%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="20%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="30%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="70%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="80%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="90%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="99%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop></lineargradient><mask id="edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9"><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="white" height="262" width="310" x="0" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="url(#edge-fade-gradient-ag44jnir2w9)" height="262" width="310" x="0" y="15"></rect></mask></defs><g transform="translate(0, 20)"><!--[--><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="37">Feb. 6, 2025</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="635.5" x="-520.8" y="18"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="55.8" x="114.7" y="18"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="657.1999999999999" x="170.5" y="18"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="37">205 races</text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="37">212 races</text></g></g><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="74">Nov. 2, 2025</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="626.1999999999999" x="-520.8" y="55"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="49.599999999999994" x="105.4" y="55"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="672.6999999999999" x="155" y="55"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="74">202 </text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="74">217 </text></g></g><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="111">Nov. 11, 2025</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="641.6999999999999" x="-520.8" y="92"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="49.599999999999994" x="120.9" y="92"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="657.1999999999999" x="170.5" y="92"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="111">207 </text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="111">212 </text></g></g><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="148">April 7, 2026</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="660.3" x="-520.8" y="129"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="52.69999999999999" x="139.5" y="129"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="635.5" x="192.2" y="129"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="148">213 </text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="148">205 </text></g></g><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="185">April 21, 2026</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="672.6999999999999" x="-520.8" y="166"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="49.599999999999994" x="151.9" y="166"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="626.1999999999999" x="201.5" y="166"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="185">217 </text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="185">202 </text></g></g><g class="row-group"><text class="axis-date-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="312" y="222">June 3, 2026</text><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-ag44jnir2w9)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-ag44jnir2w9)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#5295cc" height="30" width="635.5" x="-520.8" y="203"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="30" width="55.8" x="114.7" y="203"></rect><rect class="svelte-1hjqvm9" fill="#db7171" height="30" width="657.1999999999999" x="170.5" y="203"></rect><!--]--></g><g class="bar-values-group"><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="27" y="222">205 </text><text class="bar-count-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="283" y="222">212 </text></g></g><!--]--><line stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.125" x1="153.4" x2="153.4" y1="0" y2="232"></line><text class="majority-label svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="middle" x="155" y="-10">218 for majority control</text><g transform="translate(0, 252)"><text class="party-label party-label-dem svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="start" x="12" y="0">Favor Dems.</text><text class="party-label party-label-tossups svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="middle" x="155" y="0">Tossups</text><text class="party-label party-label-rep svelte-1hjqvm9" text-anchor="end" x="298" y="0">Favor Reps.</text></g></g></svg><!--]--></div><!--]--></div><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div><!-- --> <!--[0--><div class="g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline"><div class="g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz"><!--[--><!--[--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[0--><p class="g-wrapper_meta g-text-align-left svelte-fkyd84" style="--g-caption-display:inline;--g-caption-margin-bottom:0;"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><span class="g-note svelte-fkyd84"><!-- -->Note: Bars show a portion of the 435 House races.<!-- --></span><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></p><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div><!--]--><!-- --></figure><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Of the 88 revisions the Cook Political Report has made to race ratings since February 2025, two-thirds of them shifted toward Democrats. Yet most of the races in which Republicans gained ground were not because they won over voters, but because they redrew district lines. Four out of every five shifts in Republicans’ favor were the result of partisan redistricting.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of the shifts.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!-- --><figure class="g-wrapper svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block" style="--g-wrapper_margin-block:20px 160px;--g-wrapper_margin-top:20px;--g-wrapper_margin-bottom:160px;--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz"><div class="g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <div class="g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><svelte-css-wrapper style="display: contents; --scrollstory-items-start: 150px;"><svelte-scrollstory class="active-index-0 active-id-g-scrollstory_1-item-0 state-pre svelte-8ldd6k enabled" id="g-scrollstory_1" style="--scrollstory-threshold-top: 70vh;--scrollstory-threshold-left: 0px;--scrollstory-debug-color: rgba(255, 0, 0, 0.8);--scrollstory-debug-transformY: 20px;--scrollstory-items-start-auto: 100vh;--scrollstory-item-spacing: 75vh;--scrollstory-text-start: 50vh;--g-body-padding-top: 0.75rem;--g-body-padding-bottom: 0.75rem;--g-body-padding-left: 0.75rem;--g-body-padding-right: 0.75rem;--g-body-background-color: #fff"><svelte-scroller-outer class="svelte-vu8cxb" style="--g-top-offset-fraction:0; --g-bottom-offset-fraction:0; --parallax-offset:0px"><svelte-scroller-background-container class="background-container svelte-vu8cxb"><svelte-scroller-background class="svelte-vu8cxb"><!--[--><svelte-scrollstory-background class="svelte-8ldd6k" slot="background"><!--[--><div class="g-scroll-container svelte-cp3wi0"><div aria-label="A bar chart showing Republicans having a slight advantage over Democrats by Feb. 6, 2025, with 212 races favoring Republicans versus 205 races favoring Democrats." class="chart-wrapper scrolly class:ready=false svelte-q64tk9"><!--[-1--><div class="bar-hed-container svelte-q64tk9"><p class="date-display svelte-q64tk9">Feb. 6, 2025</p> <!--[0--><h3 class="bar-headline svelte-q64tk9"><!-- -->Cook’s first set of ratings<!-- --></h3><!--]--></div> <svg class="svelte-q64tk9" height="100" width="400"><defs><clippath id="bar-clip-5gx19mmkuzo"><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect></clippath><lineargradient id="edge-fade-gradient-5gx19mmkuzo" x1="0%" x2="100%" y1="0%" y2="0%"><stop offset="1%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop><stop offset="10%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="20%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="30%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="70%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0"></stop><stop offset="80%" stop-color="#aaa" stop-opacity="0.25"></stop><stop offset="90%" stop-color="#666" stop-opacity="0.5"></stop><stop offset="99%" stop-color="#000" stop-opacity="1"></stop></lineargradient><mask id="edge-fade-mask-5gx19mmkuzo"><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" fill="white" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" fill="url(#edge-fade-gradient-5gx19mmkuzo)" height="50" width="400" x="0" y="15"></rect></mask></defs><g transform="translate(0, 23)"><g clip-path="url(#bar-clip-5gx19mmkuzo)" mask="url(#edge-fade-mask-5gx19mmkuzo)"><!--[--><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" fill="#5295cc" height="50" width="820" x="-672" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" fill="#e4ca93CC" height="50" width="72.00000000000003" x="148" y="15"></rect><rect class="svelte-q64tk9" fill="#db7171" height="50" width="848" x="220.00000000000003" y="15"></rect><!--]--></g><line stroke="#111" stroke-width="1.125" x1="198.3" x2="198.3" y1="2" y2="65"></line><text class="majority-label svelte-q64tk9" text-anchor="middle" x="200" y="-6">218 for majority control</text><text class="party-label party-label-dem svelte-q64tk9" text-anchor="start" x="20" y="83">205 races</text><text class="party-label party-label-dem svelte-q64tk9" text-anchor="start" x="20" y="99">favor Dems.</text><text class="party-label party-label-tossups svelte-q64tk9" style="transform: translateX(184px); transition: transform 0.3s ease-in-out;" text-anchor="middle" x="0" y="83">18 tossups</text><text class="party-label party-label-rep svelte-q64tk9" text-anchor="end" x="380" y="83">212 races</text><text class="party-label party-label-rep svelte-q64tk9" text-anchor="end" x="380" y="99">favor Reps.</text></g><!--[-1--><!--]--></svg><!--]--></div><!-- --></div><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></svelte-scrollstory-background><!--]--></svelte-scroller-background></svelte-scroller-background-container> <svelte-scroller-foreground class="svelte-vu8cxb"><!--[--><svelte-scrollstory-foreground class="svelte-8ldd6k" slot="foreground"><div class="scrollstory-items svelte-8ldd6k"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[--><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-0 svelte-8ldd6k active" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-0"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->When the Cook Political Report published its first set of ratings for this midterm cycle in February 2025, it gave Republicans a nominal advantage.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-1 svelte-8ldd6k" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-1"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Congressional maps are usually drawn only once a decade to reflect population shifts after the census. But this year Republicans started a rare round of middecade redistricting at the urging of President Trump, prompting battles with Democrats nationwide.<br/><br/>In the first round, Texas redrew its map to add more Republican-favored seats. Shortly after, Republican-led governments in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio followed suit.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-2 svelte-8ldd6k" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-2"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->In response, leaders in California drew new maps to add safer Democratic seats, which voters approved in November. The same month, Utah went through court-ordered redistricting, restoring the state’s one Democratic-leaning district.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-3 svelte-8ldd6k" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-3"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->For the next several months, Democrats overperformed in special elections and continued to lead in general congressional polling. As the political environment shifted during this period, the Cook Political Report revised dozens of race ratings — unrelated to redistricting efforts — and nearly all of them shifted toward Democrats.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-4 svelte-8ldd6k" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-4"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->In April, voters in Virginia approved a new map that added more Democratic-leaning seats. It seemed for a while that the redistricting battle would shake out to be a stalemate between the parties.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><div class="scrollstory-item scrollstory-item-5 svelte-8ldd6k" id="g-scrollstory_1-item-5"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[0--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Then the tides of redistricting turned back in Republicans’ favor. Florida lawmakers swiftly approved a new map to add more Republican-leaning districts. The Supreme Court <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/us/politics/supreme-court-voting-rights-act.html">weakened the Voting Rights Act</a>, prompting several Southern states like Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee to redraw their maps in ways that helped Republicans.<br/><br/>And in another blow to Democrats, Virginia’s new map was struck down in court, wiping out the potential Democratic gains there.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--></div><!--]--><!--]--></div></svelte-scrollstory-foreground><!--]--></svelte-scroller-foreground></svelte-scroller-outer><!-- --></svelte-scrollstory> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!-- --></svelte-css-wrapper><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--></div></div><!-- --> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!-- --></figure><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->The Cook Political Report typically revises its race ratings for a wide variety of reasons. Polling numbers change. Strong challengers emerge. Incumbents decide to retire. The results of primary and special elections change the political landscape. Revisions from these factors often inch a race modestly along the rating spectrum, shifting it to be slightly more competitive or slightly less so.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Redistricting, which has affected nearly half of all revisions so far this cycle, has rewritten these rules. In many cases, seats have shifted suddenly from safely Democratic seats to safely Republican, vaulting them from one end of the rating spectrum to the other and bypassing the competitive middle entirely.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->Midterm elections in the last two decades have been largely seen as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?eafs_enabled=false">referendum</a> on the party that controls the White House. It remains to be seen if the gains the G.O.P. has built into the electoral map will be enough to overcome the Democrats’ environmental advantage.<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!-- --><p class="g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last"><!--[0--><!-- -->“We still view Democrats as favorites — strong favorites — to retake control of the House of Representatives in November,” said Matthew Klein, an analyst at the Cook Political Report who focuses on the House and governors’ races. “But certainly Republicans have built a bit more of a firewall than they had at this time last year.”<!-- --><!--]--><!-- --></p><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!-- --><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--> <cript type="text/javascript"> { __sveltekit_oxbbh7 = { base: new URL(".", location).pathname.slice(0, -1) }; const element = document.currentScript.parentElement.dataset.birdkitHydrate ? document.currentScript.parentElement : document.querySelector('[data-birdkit-hydrate="76103fc5e282d660"]'); Promise.all([ import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/Bq7zK_bpHz0-vQ/_app.cUf3URVZWSwEGJcxTA0rptZYt74Hd2KSDppYpRy2Ksw/immutable/entry/start.B_WRC8DK.js"), import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/Bq7zK_bpHz0-vQ/_app.cUf3URVZWSwEGJcxTA0rptZYt74Hd2KSDppYpRy2Ksw/immutable/entry/app.BXlzXTIW.js") ]).then(([kit, app]) => { kit.start(app, element, { node_ids: [0, 2], data: [null,{type:"data",data:{body:[{type:"svelte",value:{component:"AnimatedBarTopper",loop:true,wrapper:true,textAlign:"left",maxWidth:"body",marginInline:false,marginBlock:"25px 15px",altText:"A series of bar charts showing the Cook Political Report’s race ratings for the House of Representatives at six points during the election cycle from Feb. 6, 2025 to June 3, 2026. The graphic animates between these dates and shows both Republicans and Democrats gaining advantage over the other party at certain times."}},{type:"header",value:{sharetools:{show:true,theme:"light-filled",position:"belowByline"},style:"bolditalic",align:"center",textWrap:"balance",headline:"In the Tug-of-War for Control of the House, Redistricting Provides the Muscle",leadin:"",bylines:[{creatorSnapshots:[{bioUrl:"https://www.nytimes.com/by/ashley-wu",displayName:"Ashley Wu",slug:"ashley-wu"}],prefix:"By"}],slugs:["by/ashley-wu"],firstPublished:"June 11, 2026",firstPublishedTimestamp:"2026-06-11T20:14:15-04:00",lastModified:"June 11, 2026",lastModifiedTimestamp:"2026-06-11T20:33:40-04:00",updatedText:"",language:"en",translations:[],hideBylineAndTimestamp:void 0,transparentMasthead:false}},{type:"text",value:"Because the party out of power almost always does well in midterm elections, Democrats should be cruising toward a comfortable performance in the fall. And public sentiment has steadily drifted away from President Trump — and, by proxy, Republicans — amid an unpopular war with Iran, high gas prices and discontent with the president’s handling of the economy."},{type:"text",value:"But public sentiment matters only so much in elections. The way congressional maps are drawn can have an enormous impact on which party is favored to win. Over the last year, Republicans have created a structural advantage by redrawing maps to carve out more safe red territory."},{type:"text",value:"The \u003Ca href=\"https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/573956\">data from the Cook Political Report\u003C/a>, a nonpartisan group that analyzes elections, lays bare this tug-of-war for House control."},{type:"svelte",value:{component:"StackedBars",className:"g-stacked-bars",allCategories:false,wrapper:true,hed:"House race ratings from the Cook Political Report",note:"Note: Bars show a portion of the 435 House races.",textAlign:"left",maxWidth:"body",marginInline:"8px",marginBlock:"30px",altText:"A series of bar charts showing the Cook Political Report’s race ratings for the House of Representatives at six points during the election cycle, from Feb. 6, 2025 to June 3, 2026. The graphic shows both Republicans and Democrats gaining advantage over the other at certain times."}},{type:"text",value:"Of the 88 revisions the Cook Political Report has made to race ratings since February 2025, two-thirds of them shifted toward Democrats. Yet most of the races in which Republicans gained ground were not because they won over voters, but because they redrew district lines. Four out of every five shifts in Republicans’ favor were the result of partisan redistricting."},{type:"text",value:"Here’s a step-by-step breakdown of the shifts."},{type:"svelte",value:{component:"SimpleScrollStory",hed:"",credit:"",maxWidth:"body",marginInline:false,marginBlock:"20px 160px",showTextAfterGraphic:false,items:[{text:"When the Cook Political Report published its first set of ratings for this midterm cycle in February 2025, it gave Republicans a nominal advantage.",startDate:"",selectedDate:"2025-02-06",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"Cook’s first set of ratings",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Republicans having a slight advantage over Democrats by Feb. 6, 2025, with 212 races favoring Republicans versus 205 races favoring Democrats."},{text:"Congressional maps are usually drawn only once a decade to reflect population shifts after the census. But this year Republicans started a rare round of middecade redistricting at the urging of President Trump, prompting battles with Democrats nationwide.\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>In the first round, Texas redrew its map to add more Republican-favored seats. Shortly after, Republican-led governments in Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio followed suit.",startDate:"2025-02-06",selectedDate:"2025-11-02",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"After redistricting in Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Republicans having an advantage over Democrats by Nov. 2, 2025, with 217 races favoring Republicans versus 202 races favoring Democrats."},{text:"In response, leaders in California drew new maps to add safer Democratic seats, which voters approved in November. The same month, Utah went through court-ordered redistricting, restoring the state’s one Democratic-leaning district.",startDate:"2025-11-02",selectedDate:"2025-11-11",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"After redistricting in California and Utah",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Republicans having a slight advantage over Democrats by Nov. 11, 2025, with 212 races favoring Republicans versus 207 races favoring Democrats."},{text:"For the next several months, Democrats overperformed in special elections and continued to lead in general congressional polling. As the political environment shifted during this period, the Cook Political Report revised dozens of race ratings — unrelated to redistricting efforts — and nearly all of them shifted toward Democrats.",startDate:"2025-11-11",selectedDate:"2026-04-07",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"From mid-November to early April",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Democrats having a slight advantage over Republicans by April 7, 2026, with 213 races favoring Democrats versus 205 races favoring Republicans."},{text:"In April, voters in Virginia approved a new map that added more Democratic-leaning seats. It seemed for a while that the redistricting battle would shake out to be a stalemate between the parties.",startDate:"2026-04-07",selectedDate:"2026-04-21",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"After redistricting in Virginia",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Democrats having an advantage over Republicans by April 21, 2026, with 217 races favoring Democrats versus 202 races favoring Republicans."},{text:"Then the tides of redistricting turned back in Republicans’ favor. Florida lawmakers swiftly approved a new map to add more Republican-leaning districts. The Supreme Court \u003Ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/us/politics/supreme-court-voting-rights-act.html\">weakened the Voting Rights Act\u003C/a>, prompting several Southern states like Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee to redraw their maps in ways that helped Republicans.\u003Cbr>\u003Cbr>And in another blow to Democrats, Virginia’s new map was struck down in court, wiping out the potential Democratic gains there.",startDate:"2026-04-21",selectedDate:"2026-06-03",allCategories:false,majorityLine:true,scrolly:true,barHed:"After Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act",stepAltText:"A bar chart showing Republicans having a slight advantage over Democrats by June 3, 2026, with 212 races favoring Republicans versus 205 races favoring Democrats."}]}},{type:"text",value:"The Cook Political Report typically revises its race ratings for a wide variety of reasons. Polling numbers change. Strong challengers emerge. Incumbents decide to retire. The results of primary and special elections change the political landscape. Revisions from these factors often inch a race modestly along the rating spectrum, shifting it to be slightly more competitive or slightly less so."},{type:"text",value:"Redistricting, which has affected nearly half of all revisions so far this cycle, has rewritten these rules. In many cases, seats have shifted suddenly from safely Democratic seats to safely Republican, vaulting them from one end of the rating spectrum to the other and bypassing the competitive middle entirely."},{type:"text",value:"Midterm elections in the last two decades have been largely seen as a \u003Ca href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/02/upshot/election-tennessee-republicans-democrats.html?eafs_enabled=false\">referendum\u003C/a> on the party that controls the White House. It remains to be seen if the gains the G.O.P. has built into the electoral map will be enough to overcome the Democrats’ environmental advantage."},{type:"text",value:"“We still view Democrats as favorites — strong favorites — to retake control of the House of Representatives in November,” said Matthew Klein, an analyst at the Cook Political Report who focuses on the House and governors’ races. “But certainly Republicans have built a bit more of a firewall than they had at this time last year.”"}],theme:"news",sheets:{house:[{use:"TRUE",date:"2025-02-06",solid_dem:"176",likely_dem:"17",lean_dem:"12",tossup:"18",lean_rep:"9",likely_rep:"12",solid_rep:"191",favors_dem_all:"205",favors_rep_all:"212",redistricting:"FALSE"},{use:"TRUE",date:"2025-11-02",solid_dem:"172",likely_dem:"18",lean_dem:"12",tossup:"16",lean_rep:"11",likely_rep:"16",solid_rep:"190",favors_dem_all:"202",favors_rep_all:"217",redistricting:"TRUE"},{use:"TRUE",date:"2025-11-11",solid_dem:"179",likely_dem:"18",lean_dem:"10",tossup:"16",lean_rep:"8",likely_rep:"16",solid_rep:"188",favors_dem_all:"207",favors_rep_all:"212",redistricting:"TRUE"},{use:"TRUE",date:"2026-04-07",solid_dem:"189",likely_dem:"10",lean_dem:"14",tossup:"17",lean_rep:"3",likely_rep:"17",solid_rep:"185",favors_dem_all:"213",favors_rep_all:"205",redistricting:"FALSE"},{use:"TRUE",date:"2026-04-21",solid_dem:"192",likely_dem:"11",lean_dem:"14",tossup:"16",lean_rep:"2",likely_rep:"17",solid_rep:"183",favors_dem_all:"217",favors_rep_all:"202",redistricting:"TRUE"},{use:"TRUE",date:"2026-06-03",solid_dem:"182",likely_dem:"11",lean_dem:"12",tossup:"18",lean_rep:"5",likely_rep:"17",solid_rep:"190",favors_dem_all:"205",favors_rep_all:"212",redistricting:"TRUE"}]}},uses:{url:1}}], form: null, error: null, params: {}, route: {"id":"/index"} }); 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